Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on the Spatial Distribution of the Endangered Medicinal Plant Ferula assa-foetida L. in Kerman Province.

Document Type : Research Paper

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10.22059/jdesert.2025.104228

Abstract

Climate change significantly affects the habitats of species by altering plant distributions and their interactions with environmental factors. This study aimed to model the spatial distribution of the endangered medicinal plant Ferula assa-foetida L. under current and future climate scenarios in Kerman Province. Species occurrence locations were recorded using Global Positioning System (GPS) tracking. Habitat suitability modeling was conducted for two time periods: the present and the future (2050). Environmental variables incorporated into the models included climatic, physiographic, and land use factors relevant to the study area. To predict future distribution patterns based on climatic variables, two climate models HadGEM3-GC31-LL and MRI-ESM2.0  were employed under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios: SSP245 and SSP585. The Maxent model was used for species distribution modeling, achieving excellent predictive performance with an Area Under the Curve (AUC) value of 0.966. Among the environmental variables, BIO9 (Mean Temperature of Driest Quarter), BIO19 (Precipitation of Coldest Quarter), and BIO11 (Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter) contributed most significantly to habitat suitability. Projections for 2050 indicate a drastic reduction in suitable habitats for F. assa-foetida. Specifically, under the HadGEM3-GC31-LL, suitable habitats are expected to decrease by 97.49% and 99.91% under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. Similarly, the MRI-ESM2.0 model predicts reductions of 97.51% and 98.26% under the same scenarios. These findings highlight the urgent need for targeted management strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change and prevent the potential local extinction of this species. Furthermore, understanding the plant’s adaptive mechanisms may provide insights into its resilience and inform conservation efforts.

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Desert
Volume 30, Issue 1
June 2025
Pages 92-109

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