Simulation of rice production under climate change scenarios in the Southern coasts of Caspian Sea

Document Type: Research Paper

Authors

1 Natural Geography Department, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

2 Faculty of Agricultural Science and Engineering, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran

Abstract

Climate change has direct and indirect consequences on crop production and food security. Agriculture and crop
production is one of the factors which depend on the weather conditions and it provides the human requirements in
many aspects. The objective of this study is to assess the impacts of future climatic change on irrigated rice yield
using the CERES-Rice model in the Southern Coast of Caspian Sea under three climate change scenarios of Sra1b,
Sra2 and Srb1. Required data for this research includes the meteorological, soil and crop management data. The
meteorological data include the daily data of minimum temperature, maximum temperature, solar radiation and
precipitation during 1981-2010 and Global Climate Models (HADCM3, ECHAM5, IPCM4, GFCM2, NCCCSM and
INCM3) during 1971-2000. Soil and product management data provided from field experiment was conducted from
2008 to 2009 at the Rice Research Institute in Rasht. Validating of Global Climate Models show that ECHAM5
climate model has the highest correlation with the lowest error to simulate the future temperature and precipitation.
We used ECHAM5 climate model coupled with a crop growth model for simulating of the effects of climate change
on rice protection. The results of prediction of climate change scenarios show that minimum and maximum
temperature will be ascending and precipitation will be decreasing in the Rasht station. Results of simulated yield and
biomass of the rice crop base on scenarios of Sra1b, Sra2 and Srb1 show that rice crop yield and biomass decrease
with increasing of mean temperature and decreasing of precipitation.

Keywords

Main Subjects


Aggarwall, P.K., R.K. Mall, 2002. Climate change and
rice yields in diverse Agro-environments of India. II.
Effect of uncertainties in scenarios and crop models on
impact assessment. Climatic Change, 52; 331–343.
Auffhammer, M., Ramanathan, V., J.R. Vincent, 2012.
Climate change, the monsoon, and rice yield in India.
Climatic Change, 111; 411–424.
Bazzaz, F., W. Sombroek, 1996. Global climate change
and agricultural production. Food and agriculture
organization of the United Nations and John Wiley
and Sons.
Bouman, B. A. M., H. H. Van Laar, 2006. Description and
evaluation of the rice growth model ORYZA2000
under nitrogen-limited conditions. Agricultural
Systems, 87; 249–273.
Dore, M.H.I., 2005. Climate change and changes in global
precipitation patterns: What do we know?.
Environment International, 31; 1167–1181.
Easterling, D. R., Horton, B., D. Jones, P., Peterson, T. C.,
Karl, T. R., Parker, D. E., Salinger, M. J., Razuvayev,
V., Plummer, N., Jamason, P., C. K. Folland, 1997.
Maximum and minimum temperature trends for the
globe. Science, 277; 364–367.
Hewitson, B.C., R.G. Crane, 1996. Climate downscaling:
techniques and application. Climate Research, 7; 85-
95.
Horie T., Baskar J.T., H. Nakagawa, 2000. Crop
ecosystem responses to climate change: Rice. In:
Reddy KR, Hodges HF, editors. Climate change and
Global crop productivity. Wallingford: CABI
Publishing; p. 81–106.
Hunt, L.A., Pararajasingham, S., Jones, J. W.,
Hoogenboom, G., Imamura, D.T., R.M. Ogoshi, 1993.
Gencalc: software to facilitate the use of crop models
for analyzing field experiments. Agronomy Journal,
85; 1090–1094.
IPCC, 2007. Climate change 2007: the physical science
basis. Available from
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publication
s_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_wg1_report_the_ph
ysical_science_basis.htm.
Iran Ministry of Agriculture, 1993. The feasibility study
on the irrigation and drainage development project in
the Haraz River Basin. Tokyo: Japan International
Cooperation Agency.
Gohari, A., Eslamian, S., Abedi-Koupaei, J., Massah
Bavani, A., Wang, D., K. Madani, 2013. Climate
change impacts on crop production in Iran's
Zayandeh-Rud River Basin. Science of the Total
Environment, 442; 405–419.
Mainuddin, M., Mac Kirby, M., C.T. Hoanh, 2013. Impact
of climate change on rain fed rice and options for
adaptation in the lower Mekong Basin. Nat Hazards,
66; 905–93.
Mathauda, S.S., Mavi, H.S., Bhangoo, B.S., B.K.
Dhaliwal, 2000. Impact of projected climate change
on rice production in Punjab, India. Tropical Ecology,
41(1); 95-98.
Peng, S., Huang, J., Sheehy, J.E., Laza, R.C., Visperas,
R.M., Zhong, X., Centeno, G.S., Khush, G.S., K.G.
Cassman, 2004. Rice yields decline with higher night
temperature from global warming. Proc Natl Acad Sci
USA, 6; 9971–9975.
Poudel, S., K. Kotani, 2013. Climatic impacts on crop
yield and its variability in Nepal: do they vary across
seasons and altitudes? Climatic Change, 116; 327–
355.
Reddy, K.R., H.F. Hodges, (Eds.), 2000. Climate change
and global crop productivity. CABI Publishing,
Wallingford, Oxon, UK.
Ritchie, J.T., 1993. Genetic specific data for crop
modeling. In: Penning de Vries FWT, Teng P,
Metselaar K, editors. Systems approaches for
agricultural development. Dordrecht: Kluwer
Academic Publishers; p. 77–93.
Saseendran, S.A., Singh, K.K., Rathore, L.S., Singh, S.V.,
S.K. Sinha, 2000. Effects of climate change on rice
production in the tropical humid climate of Kernala,
India. Climatic Change, 44; 495–514.
Soora, N.K., Aggarwal, P.K., Saxena, R., Rani, S., Jain, S.,
N. Chauhan, 2013. An assessment of regional 

vulnerability of rice to climate change in India.
Climatic Change, 118; 683-699.
Timsina, J., E. Humphreys, 2006. Performance of CERESRice
and CERES-Wheat models in rice–wheat
systems: a review, Agricultural Systems, 90; 5–31.
Willmott C.J., K. Matsuura, 2005. Advantages of the mean
absolute error (MAE) over the root mean square error
(RMSE) in assessing average model performance,
Climate Resaerch, 30; 79–82.
Willmott, C.J., Ackleson, S.G., Davis, R.E., Feddema, J.J.,
Klink, K.M., Legates, D.R., Oconnell, J., C.M. Rowe,
1985. Statistics for the evaluation and comparison of
model. Geophys Res, 90; 8995–9005.
Yao, F., Xu, Y., Lin, E. Yokozawa, M., J. Zhang, 2007.
Assessing the impacts of climate change on rice yields
in the main rice areas of China. Climatic Change, 80;
395–409.
Yao, F., Peng Cheng, Q., Zhang, J., Erd, L., B. Vijendra,
2011. Uncertainties in assessing the effect of climate
change on agriculture using model simulation and
uncertainty processing methods. Atmospheric Science,
56; 729–737.
Yin, X., Struik, P.C., Tang, J., Qi, C., T. Liu, 2005. Model
analysis of flowering phonology in recombinant
inbred lines of barley. J Exp Bot, 56; 959–965.
Yoshida, S., T. Hara, 1977. Effects of air temperature and
light on grain filling of an Indica and Japonica rice
under controlled environmental conditions. Soil Sci.
Plant Nutr, 23; 93–107.
Zhiqing, J., Ge, D., Chen, H., J. Fang, 1994. Effects of
climate change on rice production and strategies for
adaptation in southern china, In: Implications of
climate change for international agriculture: crop
modeling study, U.S. Climate Change Division Report,
EPA, 230-B-94-003; p. 1–24.