Simulation of rice production under climate change scenarios in the Southern coasts of Caspian Sea

Document Type: Research Paper


1 Natural Geography Department, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

2 Faculty of Agricultural Science and Engineering, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran


Climate change has direct and indirect consequences on crop production and food security. Agriculture and crop
production is one of the factors which depend on the weather conditions and it provides the human requirements in
many aspects. The objective of this study is to assess the impacts of future climatic change on irrigated rice yield
using the CERES-Rice model in the Southern Coast of Caspian Sea under three climate change scenarios of Sra1b,
Sra2 and Srb1. Required data for this research includes the meteorological, soil and crop management data. The
meteorological data include the daily data of minimum temperature, maximum temperature, solar radiation and
precipitation during 1981-2010 and Global Climate Models (HADCM3, ECHAM5, IPCM4, GFCM2, NCCCSM and
INCM3) during 1971-2000. Soil and product management data provided from field experiment was conducted from
2008 to 2009 at the Rice Research Institute in Rasht. Validating of Global Climate Models show that ECHAM5
climate model has the highest correlation with the lowest error to simulate the future temperature and precipitation.
We used ECHAM5 climate model coupled with a crop growth model for simulating of the effects of climate change
on rice protection. The results of prediction of climate change scenarios show that minimum and maximum
temperature will be ascending and precipitation will be decreasing in the Rasht station. Results of simulated yield and
biomass of the rice crop base on scenarios of Sra1b, Sra2 and Srb1 show that rice crop yield and biomass decrease
with increasing of mean temperature and decreasing of precipitation.


Main Subjects

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