Simulation of climate change in Iran during 2071-2100 using PRECIS regional climate modelling system

Document Type: Research Paper


1 Head of Climate Change Division, National Climate Center

2 Member of Climate Change Devision, National Climate Center

3 Faculty member of Civil Engineering, Tabriz University


Parameters such as future precipitation, temperature, snowfall, and runoff were modeled using PRECIS regional
climate modeling system in Iran with the horizontal resolutions of 0.44×0.44°C in latitude and longitude under SRES
A2 and B2 scenarios. The dataset was based on HadAM3p during the periods of 1961-1990 and 2071-2100. The
overall precipitation error of the model in the period of 1961-1990 was 5.3%. Minimum errors were found to be over
Azari, north-central, and Kordi regions. Maximum and minimum monthly precipitation errors were found in
September and May, respectively; but, minimum and maximum seasonal biases were found in spring and winter with
-0.1 and -17.2% errors, respectively. Results revealed a decrease in mean annual precipitation toward the end of the
21st century by 7.8 mm in B2 scenario and 10.1 mm in A2 Scenario with maximum regional decrease of 100 mm in
the southeast of the Caspian Sea. The decrease in precipitation was higher for A2 scenario, whereas it was minimum
for B1 scenario. Mean annual temperature of Iran during 2071-2100 would be projected to increase by 4.5-5.5°C in
A2 scenario and 3-4°C in B2 scenarios compared to 1961-1990. It was shown that mean annual changes in runoff
over the country were negligible both in A2 and B2 scenarios. Maximum annual amount of runoff increase was found
over western part of the Caspian Sea, Zagros and Alborz mountain chains by 6.4-15. 8mm. Results also indicated that
annual snowfall would decrease by the maximum amount of 22.9-23.7 cm over Zagros and Alborz mountain chains.


Main Subjects

Alijani, B., 2001. Climate of Iran. 6th edition, Payam-e-
Noor University Press (in Persian).
Alvez, L. M., J. Marengo, 2009. Assessment of regional
seasonal predictability using the PRECIS regional
climate modeling system over South America.
Theoretical and applied climatology, DOI
Asgari A., F. Rahimzadeh, N. Mohammadian, E. Fattahi,
2007. Anlysis of extreme precipitation indices over
Iran. Iranian journal of water resources researches, 3;
Azizi GH., M. Roshani, 2008. Study of climate change
over Southern regions of Caspian Sea. Iranian journal
of Geographical Researches, 64; 13-28.
Babaeian, I., Z. Najafi-Nik, F. Zabol-Abbasi, M. Habibi-
Nokhandan, H. Adab, S. Malbusi, 2009. Climate
change assessment over Iran using Statistical
downscaling of ECHO-G outputs during 2010-2039.
Iranian Journal of Geography and Development,
7; 135-152.
Beraki, AF., 2005. Climate change scenario simulations
over Eritrea by using a fine resolution limited area
climate model: temperature and moisture sensitivity.
M asters Thesis etd-02102006-152327, University of
Pretoria, Department of Geography, Geo-informatics
and Meteorology, Eritrea, Niger.
Brankovic, C. B., L. Srnec, M. Pataracic, 2010. An
assessment of global and regional climate change
based on the ECH5OM climate model ensemble.
Journal of Climate Change, 98;21-49.
Houghton, J. T., Y. Ding, D.J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P.J.
van der Linden, D. Xioaosu (eds), 2001. Climate
Change 2001: The scientific basis, Contribution of
Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Cambridge University press: Cambridge.
Houghton, J. T., L.G. MeriaFilho, B.A. Callander, N.
Harris, A. Kattenberg, K. Maskell, (eds), 1995.
Climate Change 1995.Integovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC), Cambridge University
Press: Cambridge.
Im, E. S., M.H. Kim, W.T. Kwon, S. Cocke, 2007.
Projected change in mean and extreme climate over
Korea from a double-nested regional climate model
simulation. Journal of meteorological society of
Japan, 85; 717-732.
IPCC(2007) Climate Change 2007: the physical basis.
In: Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M.
Marquis, KB. Averyt, M. Tingor, H.L. Miller, (eds)
Contribution of working group I to the fourth
assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on
climate change. Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, pp. 996.
Jones, R G., J.M. Murphy, M. Noguer, 1995. Simulation
of climate change over Europe using a nested
regional climate model, Part I: assessment of control
climate, including sensitivity to location of lateral
boundaries. Quarterly journal of the Royal
meteorological society, 121; 1413-1449.
Khan, A. M., Q.Z. Chaudhry, 2007. Enhancement of
national capacities in the application of simulation
models for the assessment of climate change and its
impacts on water resources and food and agricultural
production. Final report for APN capable project:
2005-CRP1CMY-Khan, Global Change Impact
Studies Centre (GCISC), 95 p.
Kolli, R.K., A.K. Sahai, K.K. Kumar, S.K. Patwardhan,
P.K. Mishra, J.V. Revadekar, K. Kam, G.B. Pant,
2006. High-resolution climatechange scenarios for
India for the 21st century. Current Science, 90; 334-
Kwon, W. T., H.J. Baek, K.O. Boo, H.S. Lee, 2004.
Climate change: where do we stand? Proceeding of
The First Iran –Korea Joint workshop on climate
Modeling, 16-17 Nov. 2005, PP. 3-6.
Lelieveld, J., P. Hadjinicolaou, E. Kostopolou, J.
Chenoweth, M. ElMaayar, C. Giannakopoulos, C.
Hannides, M.A. Lange, M. Tanarhte, E. Tyrlis, E.
Xoplaki, 2012. Climate change impacts in the Eastern
Mediterranean and Middle East. Journal of Climate
Change, DOI 10.1007/s10584-012-0418-4, 114; 667-
Lioubimtseva, E., G.M. Henebry, 2009. Climate and
environmental change in arid Central Asia: impacts,
vulnerability and adaptations. Journal of Arid
Environments, 73; 963-977.
Masoudian, S. A., 2008. Precipitation regimes of Iran.
Iranian journal of Geography and Development, 13;
Min, S. K., S. Leagutke, A. Hense, U. Cubasch, K.W.
Kwon, J.H. Oh, U. Schlese, 2006. East Asian climate
change in the 21st century as simulated by the coupled
climate model ECHO-G under IPCC SRES scenario.
Journal of Meteorological Society of Japan, 84; 1-26.
Nazirul, Islam, M. Abdulmannan, L.P. Devkota, M.
Mnesa, 2005. Validation of PRECIS regional climate
model in Bangladesh. Technical report supported by
DEFID and UNDP, 46 p.
Nazirul-Islamm, M., M. Rafiuddin, A. Ahmed, R.K.
Kolli, 2007. Calibration of PRECIS in employing
future scenarios in Bangladesh. International journal
of Climatology, DOI: 10, 1002/joc.1559.
Rahimzadeh, F., A. Asgari, 2004. Investigating and
analysis of different increasing rate of maximum and
minimum temperature over Iran. Iranian journal of
Geographical Researches, 73; 155-171.
Rahimzadeh, F., A. Asgari, 2006. Climate variability of
Iran in recent decades. Iranian journal of
Geographical Researches, 58; 67-80.
Rahimzadeh, F., E. Fattahi, S.E. Hoseini-Dastak, 2005.
Climate variability and change over Iran. Iranian
journal of water resources researches, 2; 61-73.
Rahimzadeh, F., A. Asgari E. Fattahi, 2009. Variability
of Extreme temperature and precipitation in Iran
during recent decades, International Journal of
Climatology, 29; 329-343.
Sadat-Ashofteh, P., A. Massah-Bavani, 2009. Effect of
climate change uncertainty in precipitation and
temperature of Idoghmush basin in 2040-2069.
Iranian Journal of Agricultural Science, 19; 85-98.
Sheperd, J. M., M.H. Jin, 2004. Linkage between the
urban environment and Earth's climate system, Eos
Trans. AGU, 85; 227-228.
Wang, J., Y. Hong, J. Gourley, P. Adhikari, L. Li, F. Su,
2010. Quantitative assessment of climate change and 

human impacts in a sub-basin of the Yellow River-
China. International Journal of Climatology, 30;
Wilson, S., D. Hassell, D. Hein, R. Jones, R. Taylor,
2005. Installing and using the Hadley centre regional
climate modeling system: PRECIS. Version 1.4, Met
Office Hadley Center, Exeter, UK, 136 pp.
Yinlong, X., H. Xiaoying, Z. Yong, L. Wantao, L. Erda,
2006. Statistical analyses of climate change scenarios
over China in the 21st Century. Advances in Climate
Change Research 2(Suppl. 1); 50 – 53.
Zarghami, M., A. Abdi, I. Babaeian, Y. Hasanzadeh, R.
Kanani, 2011. Impacts of climate change on runoff in
East Azerbaijan – Iran. Journal of Global and
Planetary Change, 78; 137-146.