This study was conducted to investigate the role of climate change in intensifying dry conditions and facilitating the transformation of the Salehiyeh wetland into a dust source. Daily temperature and precipitation data from the synoptic stations of Karaj, Qazvin, Hashtgerd, Taleqan, and Buin Zahra for the 1990–2024 period were obtained from the Iran Meteorological Organization and analyzed after quality control, completion of missing data, and removal of outliers. Trends in climatic parameters were examined using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator. In addition, the (SPEI) was calculated at 1-, 3-, 6-, 9-, 12-, and 24-month timescales to evaluate drought severity and frequency. The results indicated that nearly all temperature indices at the studied stations exhibited significant warming trends. Increases in mean temperature, extreme temperatures, summer days, and tropical nights, together with significant decreases in frost days and frost nights, indicate substantial regional warming, particularly during the cold season. In contrast, although most precipitation indices showed decreasing trends, these changes did not reach statistical significance. The SPEI analysis further demonstrated significant negative trends at all timescales, indicating an increase in the frequency and severity of cumulative and long-term droughts in the region. Overall, the findings show that the study area is experiencing a distinct climatic transition characterized by rapid warming, especially during the cold season, increased nighttime temperatures, reduced frost frequency, and intensified drought conditions. Even in the absence of a significant decrease in precipitation, these conditions may contribute to wetland desiccation and increased dust emission potential through enhanced evapotranspiration and reduced surface moisture. Furthermore, the magnitude of the observed warming relative to typical global trends suggests the possible influence of local factors, including increased atmospheric pollutants, enhanced greenhouse effects, land-use change, and urban expansion, in addition to regional climate change.